The Drake equation with a twist!
Lockdown day no 10
It started as a snowy day in northern Greece. Nothing much happened in our daily routine.
Last week, I begun writing about the Drake equation thinking that it might give us some useful hints about our future. It seems that I could only use it for a much humbler cause. Forget the vastness of the Universe and focus on our planet Earth.
Today's question is: what is the number of people in the entire humankind with whom one can achieve true and selfless love.
Consider this number to be N, then
N = N𝐨 * fl * n𝑒 * fg * fs * f𝑐 * f𝐿
where,
N𝐨 = the number of people ever born
fl = the fraction of those ever born that are alive today
ne = the known number of planets that support human life
fg = the fraction of people that belong to one's generation
fs = the fraction of people that are attracted to each other
fc = the fraction of people that release detectable signs to one's culture
f𝐋 = the fraction of one's living time at which he/she/non binary is prone to detecting those signals
All the f 's are fractions with values ranging between 0 and 1, they lower the large value of N.
As in the original equation, the first few terms on the RHS are known, and as we go further down we start guessing. So, starting with N𝐨 the number of people that ever lived, as of 2019, is approx. 109 billion (109,000,000,000) and fl the fraction of those ever born that are alive today is 0.071 [1]
We have not yet mastered interplanetary space travel so the second factor ne = 1 for now and is redundant; mother Earth is our only home.
The current median age in 2018 in world population is 30 years and the life expectancy is 73. We tend to agree that the average generation lasts 10 years and then fg the fraction of people that belong to our generation varies depending on the shape of the age structure of the world population (i.e. the global population pyramid). [2] As an example, in the 40s to 50s age group there are about 450,000,000 people according to the source below. That gives a value of fg equal to 0.0584
The fs - the fraction of people that are attracted to each other is ranging between 0.05 to 0.45 depending on genetic, environmental or social factors [3]
fc the fraction of people that release detectable signs to one's culture is probalby the most subjective variable. There are those that believe that everybody can live together, and those that feel more comfortable with people "of their own kind". I would arbitrarily (or not so) put this value to 0,00195
Lastly comes f𝐋 the fraction of one's living time at which he/she/non binary is prone to detecting those signals, again this variable can vary from 0.2 meaning a low reception factor to 0.8 a high reception factor.
By multiplying all the factors above, we get results ranging from approx 9,000 to 500,000
These numbers are potentialy big for any given soul on earth trying to find its kindred spirit.
I hope this result (although derived in a circular manner) brings some positive thoughts to all of you.
Good night and stay safe,
[1] https://www.prb.org/howmanypeoplehaveeverlivedonearth/ Source for January 2020 Update: Toshiko Kaneda, Charlotte Greenbaum, and Kaitlyn Patierno, 2019 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2019); United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2017).
[2] https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure Age Structure by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser First published in September 2019.
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_sexual_orientation , Demographics of sexual orientation
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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| photo: A. Kallias, Drama |
It started as a snowy day in northern Greece. Nothing much happened in our daily routine.
Last week, I begun writing about the Drake equation thinking that it might give us some useful hints about our future. It seems that I could only use it for a much humbler cause. Forget the vastness of the Universe and focus on our planet Earth.
Today's question is: what is the number of people in the entire humankind with whom one can achieve true and selfless love.
Consider this number to be N, then
N = N𝐨 * fl * n𝑒 * fg * fs * f𝑐 * f𝐿
where,
N𝐨 = the number of people ever born
fl = the fraction of those ever born that are alive today
ne = the known number of planets that support human life
fg = the fraction of people that belong to one's generation
fs = the fraction of people that are attracted to each other
fc = the fraction of people that release detectable signs to one's culture
f𝐋 = the fraction of one's living time at which he/she/non binary is prone to detecting those signals
All the f 's are fractions with values ranging between 0 and 1, they lower the large value of N.
As in the original equation, the first few terms on the RHS are known, and as we go further down we start guessing. So, starting with N𝐨 the number of people that ever lived, as of 2019, is approx. 109 billion (109,000,000,000) and fl the fraction of those ever born that are alive today is 0.071 [1]
We have not yet mastered interplanetary space travel so the second factor ne = 1 for now and is redundant; mother Earth is our only home.
The current median age in 2018 in world population is 30 years and the life expectancy is 73. We tend to agree that the average generation lasts 10 years and then fg the fraction of people that belong to our generation varies depending on the shape of the age structure of the world population (i.e. the global population pyramid). [2] As an example, in the 40s to 50s age group there are about 450,000,000 people according to the source below. That gives a value of fg equal to 0.0584
The fs - the fraction of people that are attracted to each other is ranging between 0.05 to 0.45 depending on genetic, environmental or social factors [3]
fc the fraction of people that release detectable signs to one's culture is probalby the most subjective variable. There are those that believe that everybody can live together, and those that feel more comfortable with people "of their own kind". I would arbitrarily (or not so) put this value to 0,00195
Lastly comes f𝐋 the fraction of one's living time at which he/she/non binary is prone to detecting those signals, again this variable can vary from 0.2 meaning a low reception factor to 0.8 a high reception factor.
By multiplying all the factors above, we get results ranging from approx 9,000 to 500,000
These numbers are potentialy big for any given soul on earth trying to find its kindred spirit.
I hope this result (although derived in a circular manner) brings some positive thoughts to all of you.
Good night and stay safe,
[1] https://www.prb.org/howmanypeoplehaveeverlivedonearth/ Source for January 2020 Update: Toshiko Kaneda, Charlotte Greenbaum, and Kaitlyn Patierno, 2019 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2019); United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2017).
[2] https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure Age Structure by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser First published in September 2019.
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_sexual_orientation , Demographics of sexual orientation
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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